Can Democrats Win Back Florida?

Mar 16, 2020 · 16 comments
carl (st.paul)
If the stock market does not rebound soon, the electorate that supported Trump will dwindle as 401 (k) s and savings erode and jobs stop to disappear.
The Scythe (USA)
Donald Trump is favored to win in Florida. Most of the factors are benefiting Trump, including: -The democratic party's leftward shift on cultural issues like immigration, guns, and abortion, which will maximize conservative turnout in the panhandle and consolidate Southern Democrats who are fiscally center-left but culturally conservative to Trump. -Joe Biden's deteriorating mental faculties, which will sway independents and reduce his suburban advantage if Trump launches attack-ads on the treasure trove of Biden gaffes. -The consolidation of the older Cuban/Venezuelan to Trump, they are more likely to hold their nose after seeing Dems' rhetoric. -The migration of older, more conservative retirees to Florida offsets the general liberal demographic shift caused by immigration. -The Republican governor of Florida has a very high approval rating, which can serve as a pull factor in favor of Trump. -Joe Biden's bad record on Social Security and Medicare, which prevents him from attacking Trump on those issues. -Potential lack of leftist youth turnout as a result of nominating Joe Biden, which can partially offset increase in turnout among older liberals. -Turnout among older liberals can also be negated through attack ads on Biden. All of these factors will easily overwhelm the handful of votes that Democrats will net from the restoration of voting rights for felons, most of whom probably don't even care/know about voting. Trump is favored to win by 1-2 points in FL.
Kevin (Windermere, FL.)
COVID 19 has afforded the Governor and Secretary of State for Florida another opportunity to substantially suppress voter turnout in tomorrows Florida primary election. By executive order forbidding residents to leave senior communities for fear of a 14 day quarantine these citizens, taxpayers and veterans will not be able to cast their vote tomorrow. (they are not all Trump supporters so before someone accuses the elderly of that, get your facts straight) A few county supervisors of elections are making pickup mail in ballots available with a written permission form to be used however at 3:50PM on election eve, the word is still not out that this option is available. The active order that the Governor put into place covers nursing homes and assisted living facilities. What the governor and the executive order did not take into account is that many of these nursing homes and assisted living buildings, facilities and communities are a part of and or connected to independent living buildings and communities which in effect puts 10s of thousands of people on lockdown who will not be allowed to vote in tomorrows primary election. No one with the communities nor with the board of elections wants to listen to this concern at the 11th hour.
BB (Califonia)
Florida, If you like your health care plan, you can keep it. Of course, it may continue to cost you more and more. And may go away if you lose your job. But someday in your late 60's it will be ok if you live that long. Be watching for the government to give your tax dollars as bailouts to corporations in the coming weeks and months rather than providing you with health care. Please keep this in mind when you go to the polls to vote. If you think health care should remain a privilege of the wealthy and old, that is of course your right. I hope, however, that you consider your own health and that of your fellow citizens when you vote.
Vahe Demirjian (Newport Coast, CA)
"“It’s heartbreaking to me,” said Ms. Ferrera, who is enthusiastic about Mr. Biden’s candidacy. “Because we’ve been making so many inroads with the Cuban-American community.”" When Joe Biden goes to Florida, he will send a strong message to Cuban Americans: If Trump doesn't restore visa processing at the US Embassy in Havana, if his border wall is never built, if he calls mainstream US media outlets "enemies of the American people", and if he doesn't tone down his hollering at Havana for repressive behavior, you shouldn't vote for Trump at all. Democrats reached out to Miami Cuban Americans in the 1990s by squeezing Cuba economically and diplomatically to make Fidel Castro respond to the collapse of the USSR with political & economic reforms of his own, but remember that Obama, aided by Cuban American millennials with loved ones in Cuba, had a message for the GOP: just because whoever is in charge of Cuba says the political system isn't changing doesn't mean we shouldn't trade with Cuba. Calling Fidel Castro evil is not just out of respect for Cuban Americans, it's also about respect for US values, like human decency and human rights. It was easier for Obama to forgive the communist government in Havana than its founding father, Fidel Castro. If some older Cuban Americans decide that Trump squeezing parts of Cuba's economy just because of human rights violations is not good, then they will vote for Biden.
Cynthia (California)
Biden should DEFINITELY attack Trump as the authoritarian-in-waiting. We will continue to get closer and closer to that style of governing if he is elected for another four years.
njheathen (Ewing, NJ)
The courts have already struck down the Republican financial requirements for former felons. They are all going to be eligible to vote.
Tom Q (Minneapolis, MN)
I ask all Floridians to remember just one thing. If a major hurricane hits the state before November, remember that not even the current president will be able to throw toilet paper to you this year. That's how bad things are.
John (Utah)
Young people have had record turnout this year. But turnout among the elderly has doubled in reaction to stifle and destroy any hope these young people could have in the future of this planet. And the best part is all the Dem establishment seems to do is gloat about it. God help us all.
Frederick (California)
If Floridians continue to fight the egregious voter suppression that disenfranchises its Democratic citizens then yes, Democratic candidates will win. Florida is now and has pretty much always been 'Democratic'.
Trevor Diaz (NYC)
FL has 29 Electoral College, which will decide who will be in White House in coming Nov 2020 Election.
Alan (Columbus OH)
Florida, once called the "Gunshine State", will be very difficult for Biden. Much of the population is self-selecting and not unlike its most famous resident-by-choice,Trump himself. There are several easier paths to 270 for Democrats. If Biden needs to win specifically Florida, he is in trouble.
Mick (New Jersey)
It appears that Florida is taking no precautions for Covid-19, and Spring Break is going ahead like any other year. If FL becomes America's Wuhan then that frames a lot of other issues that Floridians are having. Climate Change, and Red Tides being the most obvious. Add in a whole load of PR refugees who are still furious at the Federal response to Hurricane Maria and maybe, just maybe Florida will go blue.
Phyliss Dalmatian (Wichita, Kansas)
Told you SO. It’s Joe Biden, all the way. The young People may have the energy and dreams, but they don’t VOTE. Lesson learned ? For Everyone: if you don’t Vote, you will eventually get what you allow.
John Smith (Boston)
Young voter turnout is up across primaries, it’s just not up as much as older voters (wealth and retirement make missing a day of work to vote easier.) The young will not show up at all to vote for Biden in November; he’s way riskier in the general than the wealthy old armchair pundits on this site like to pretend. Democrats are repeating the same bad ideas from 2016 and expecting better results. What’s wrong with y’all?
Ben (Mexico)
@John Smith if young people wouldn't turn up for bernie in the primaries, why the heck would they turn up in the general? What's wrong with y'all?
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